The monte carlo simulation method is an improvement over the scenario analysis method . it compensates the deficiencies in scenario analysis and is able to retrieve more insights than we are able to get otherwise . in this paper , we implemented the monte carlo simulation method to analyze the reserves Montecarlo模擬方法是對(duì)傳統(tǒng)方法,特別是情景分析方法的改進(jìn),它彌補(bǔ)了情景分析方法在模擬數(shù)量上的不足,覆蓋了足夠多的情景假設(shè);同時(shí)通過(guò)對(duì)模擬樣本進(jìn)行統(tǒng)計(jì),獲取了傳統(tǒng)情景方法下無(wú)法獲得的信息,使分析更具有參考性和實(shí)用性。